張 焱，孫飛飛，趙思遠

(寧波市水利水電規劃設計研究院有限公司，浙江 寧波315192)

　　摘 要：在基于預估偏差的臺風路徑集合預報優化方法的基礎上，提出并驗證不同預報時次的預報偏差不一致的假定，從區分臨近樣本使用途徑的角度做出綜合改進，以進一步提高該類臺風路徑集合預報方法的穩定性和實用性。對2008—2017年影響我國東南沿海的48場典型臺風的全過程進行路徑集合預報檢驗，并與模式預報路徑預報表現進行對比分析。研究表明：集合預報在未來1～24 h削減國內外各大模式預報平均誤差17.9～21.3 km，削減比例達72%～19%，說明預報方法具有較高精度、穩定性和實用價值。

　　關鍵詞：臺風路徑;集合預報;預估偏差;實時校正

　　Ensemble forecast method of typhoon tracks based on estimated deviation correction

　　ZHANG Yan, SUN Feifei, ZHAO Siyuan

　　(Ningbo Hydraulic Waterpower Planning Designing Research Institution, Ningbo 315192, China)

　　Abstract：The article puts forward an assumption that forecast deviation does exist for different forecasting duration and frequency, and results of typhoon track prediction gather can be optimized by correcting estimated deviation. To comprehensively improve the stability and practicability of ensemble forecast for typhoon tracks, researchers started by distinguishing adjacent samples in terms of their footprints. To verify the validity of the aforementioned assumption, they took 48 typical typhoons in the southeast coast of China between 2008 and 2017 as the experimental subject. They compared results for next 1-24 hours from model predictions conducted by major institutions (national and international) with those from improved ensemble forecast of typhoon tracks with estimated deviation correction. It shows that errors of the latter can be 17.9km~21.3km lower than the former, a reduction of 72%~19%, which proves that improved ensemble forecast method with estimated deviation correction can be highly accurate, stable and applicable.

　　Key words：typhoon tracks; ensemble forecast; estimated deviation; real time correction