侯龍潭，張雪晶，張 濤

(山東省水利勘測設計院，山東 濟南 250013)

　　摘要：為評價建設項目面臨的洪水風險，為工程優化設計提供依據，以鄒平貨運鐵路物流站為例，采用MIKE21與MIKE11耦合方式，建立項目區周邊河網模型，分析孝婦河在100年一遇設計洪水情況下右堤不同位置發生漫溢或潰堤時，項目區洪水演進過程，得到新建鄒平貨運鐵路物流站各區域淹沒水深、流速、淹沒歷時等特征數據。根據模擬結果，孝婦河在不同位置潰堤時洪水對物流站的影響差別較大，其中，位于物流站西南側的毛張村南側潰口潰決時，對項目區影響最大，該工況下物流站最大淹沒水深可達0.83 m，最大流速0.65 m/s，淹沒歷時約1.26 d。除毛張村南側外，其他潰口潰決或漫溢對項目區淹沒風險較小。根據模擬結果，本研究有針對性地提出了減輕或消除洪水影響的措施，可為類似項目洪水風險分析提供一定的參考。

　　關鍵詞：潰堤;漫溢;洪水風險分析;耦合模型;水動力學模型

　　Flood risk analysis of construction project based on hydrodynamic model

　　HOU Longtan, ZHANG Xuejing, ZHANG Tao

　　(Shandong Survey and Design Institute of Water Conservancy, Ji’nan 250013, China)

　　Abstract: In order to evaluate flood risk of construction project and provide basis for engineering optimization design, taking Zouping freight railway logistics station as an example, this paper establishes river network model around the research area by using the Coupled 1D-2D Hydrodynamic Model, analyzes the flood process when the river overflows or breaks at different positions in case of 100 year design flood, and obtains the characteristics data of the inundation depth, velocity and inundation duration. According to the simulation results, when River Xiaofu dike breaks at different locations, the impact of flood on the logistics station is quite different. When dike breaks at south of Maozhang village, the flood has the greatest impact on the project area. Under this condition, the maximum submerged depth of the logistics station can reach 0.83m, the maximum flow speed is 0.65m/s, and the submerged time is about 1.26 days. Except for this area, the risk of other breach or overflow to the project area is small. According to the results, some measures to reduce or eliminate the impact of flood are proposed. This study can provide some reference for flood risk analysis of similar projects.

　　Key words: dambreak; overflow; flood risk analysis; coupled model; hydrodynamic model