江雨田，范仲麗，孫如飛，趙思遠，朱從飛

(寧波市水利水電規劃設計研究院有限公司，浙江 寧波 315192)

　　摘 要： 為克服傳統山洪災害監測預警系統存在的預見期、精確性不足等問題，建設山洪災害短歷時風險預報預警平臺。以氣象部門精細化短臨降雨預報為數據驅動，構建基于雨量指標法的山洪風險預報預警分析模型，能夠比傳統監測預警系統提前1～3 h準確預判山洪災害風險區域。平臺上線運行后，在寧波市“20180917”“利奇馬”等多場次臺風暴雨中得到成功應用，可為山洪災害提前防御和及時部署提供有力技術支撐。

　　關鍵詞：山洪災害;預報預警平臺;短歷時;風險;短臨預報;信息系統;防汛抗旱

　　Research and application of risk prediction and prewarning platform for mountain flood

　　JIANG Yutian, FAN Zhongli, SUN Rufei, ZHAO Siyuan, ZHU Congfei

　　(Ningbo Hydraulic Waterpower Planning Designing Research Institution Co.,Ltd., Ningbo 315192, China)

　　Abstract：In order to overcome the problems of insufficient prediction period and accuracy existing in the traditional monitoring and prewarning system for mountain flood disaster, has been built “risk prediction and prewarning platform for mountain flood”. Driven by the refined short-term and impending rainfall forecast of meteorological department, the platform constructs a mountain torrent risk prediction and early warning analysis model based on rainfall index method, which can accurately predict risk area of mountain flood 1～3 hour ahead of the traditional system. After being put into operation, the platform has been successfully applied in many rainstorms such as “20180917” and “Lekima” in Ningbo, which can provide technical support for the early prevention and deployment of mountain torrents.

　　Key words: mountain flood; forecast and early warning platform; short duration; risk; nowcasting; information system; flood control and drought resistance