胡健偉，孔祥意，趙蘭蘭，朱冰

　　(水利部信息中心，北京 100053)

　　摘要：水利業務“四預”是智慧水利建設的重要組成部分，為大力推進智慧水利建設，水利部出臺了《水利業務“四預”基本技術要求(試行)》。流域防洪是水利“2+N”業務中最為核心關鍵的業務，防洪“四預”功能也相對成熟，以防洪業務為例，剖析防洪“四預”關系，預報是基礎、預警是前哨、預演是關鍵、預案是目的;對預報、預警、預演、預案的技術要求和要點分別進行解讀，預報要點在延長預見期、提高預報精度、提升作業預報效率，預警的要點是及時將預警信息直達水旱災害防御工作一線、直達受影響區域社會公眾，預演要點在于正向、逆向預演和輕量化展示，預案的要點在可操作性和執行。本文件的解讀將為防洪“四預”的建設提供借鑒參考。

　　關鍵詞：防洪;四預;預報;預警;預演;預案;解讀

　　Interpretation of the basic technical requirements for “Four-Pres” in flood prevention

　　HU Jianwei, KONG Xiangyi, ZHAO Lanlan, ZHU Bing

　　(Information Center，Ministry of Water Resources，Beijing 100053，China)

　　Abstract: The “Four-Pres” is an important part of developing water intelligence. In order to promote water intelligence, the Ministry of Water Resources has issued the Basic Technical Requirements for the “Four-Pres” in Water Resources Management (Trial). Flood prevention is the most important part in the “2+N” business of water resources management, where the “Four-Pres” measures are also relatively well developed. In this paper, flood prevention is taken as an example to interpret the technical requirements and analyze the relationship among the ‘Four-Pres’. The main point of forecast is to extend the lead time, improve the accuracy and enhance the efficiency; the main point of early-warning is to deliver the warning information directly to the front line of water and drought disaster defense work and directly to the public in affected areas, the main point of rehearsal is to show the positive and negative preview, and the main point of contingency plans is the operability and execution. The interpretation will provide significant preference for the development of “Four-Pres” in flood prevention.

　　Key words: flood prevention;Four-Pres;forecast; early-warning;rehearsal;contingency plans