劉曉東1，徐少南2，賈慶林1，薛紅琴3，王 玨1

(1. 淺水湖泊綜合治理與資源開發教育部重點實驗室.河海大學環境學院， 江蘇 南京 210098;2. 中交上海航道局有限公司江蘇交通建設工程分公司，江蘇 南京 210000;3. 南京林業大學 土木工程學院，江蘇 南京210037)

　　摘要：長江感潮河段水動力條件復雜，對該水域溢油事故缺少相應的風險評價指標體系。為科學評價長江感潮河段溢油風險，從溢油事故對上游水體、敏感點、敏感區影響3個要素出發，構建風險評價指標體系，包括危害區特征、危害期特征共23個指標。應用該指標體系，基于EFDC二維水動力-油粒子模型，以長江南京段水域某碼頭溢油事故為研究對象，開展溢油風險評價，模擬計算漲急、落急、漲憩、落憩4種典型事故發生工況下的風險評價指標值。結果表明，事故發生在落急或漲憩時刻時不會對上游水域產生影響，發生在落憩時刻時對事故點上游水域影響距離最遠，發生在落急時刻時將最快影響到下游的敏感點和敏感區，持續時間與水動力特性密切相關。建立的評價指標體系可以較為全面地刻畫溢油風險影響特征，為長江感潮河段溢油風險評價提供量化指標和評價工具。

　　關鍵詞：感潮河段;溢油事故;風險評價;EFDC模型;評價體系

　　Establishment and application of risk evaluation index system

　　of oil spill accidents in Yangtze River tidal section

　　LIU Xiaodong1, XU Shaonan2, JIA Qinglin1, XUE Hongqin3, WANG Jue1

　　(1. College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;

　　2.Jiangsu Traffic Construction Engineering Branch of China Communications Construction Company Shanghai Dredging Co., Ltd., Nanjing 210000, China;

　　3 College of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China)

　　Abstract: Hydrodynamic conditions of tidal reach of the Yangtze River are relatively complex. And there is a lack of corresponding risk evaluation index system of oil spill accidents in this area. In order to scientifically evaluate the risk of oil spill in tidal waterway of the Yangtze River, this paper establishes risk evaluation index system, including twenty-three indexes such as characteristics of hazard area, characteristics of hazard period and so on. The risk evaluation index system of oil spill accidents is constructed from three aspects: the upstream water body, the passing sensitive point and the passing sensitive area. Based on the EFDC (environmental fluid dynamics code)two-dimensional hydrodynamic-oil particle model , oil spill risk evaluation is conducted, taking a dock oil spill accident, which is located at Nanjing section of the Yangtze River, as the research object, to simulate and calculate the risk evaluation index under circumstances of four typical accident condition, i.e, maximum flood, maximum ebb, end of ebb and flow. Results show that accidents, which occur at the time of maximum ebb or end of ebb, have no impact on the upstream water area. Accidents, which occur at the time of end of flow, have the longest-distance impact on the upstream water area of the accident spot. Accidents, occurring at the time of maximum ebb, have the quickest impact on the downstream sensitive spots and areas, also, impact duration is closely related to hydrodynamic characteristics. The established risk evaluation index system can describe the oil spill risk impact characteristics comprehensively and provide quantitative indicators and evaluation tools for oil spill risk evaluation in tidal reach of the Yangtze River.

　　Key words: tidal waterway; accidents of oil spill; risk evaluation; EFDC model; evaluation system